2011. 1. 25. 11:06
인생이모작/가격 전략
Summary
Most business decision, such as launching a new product, are taken with incomplete knowledge about how the future will evolve. There is a big difference between naive decision making, educated guesses and calculated risks. Risk analysis aims to achieve the last of these.
The main tools are sensitivity analysis(what-if question, what-if table), scenario analysis. decision analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Some understanding of probabilities and a lot of common sense is required to make good use of a simulation exercise.
List of questions you shoud ask yourself that will help you to evaluate properly the results of a risk analysis exercise
What is the range of possible values for the main outputs?
What is the expected rate of return?
What is the downside of this investment?
How could I cope with the downside?
Is there any combination of uncertainties that result in catastrophic consequences?
Which are the main uncertainty drivers causing the variation in profits?
What can I do to reduce these uncertainties?
How does the risk-return profile fo this project compares to other alternatives?
Full script
Most business decision, such as launching a new product, are taken with incomplete knowledge about how the future will evolve. There is a big difference between naive decision making, educated guesses and calculated risks. Risk analysis aims to achieve the last of these.
The main tools are sensitivity analysis(what-if question, what-if table), scenario analysis. decision analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Some understanding of probabilities and a lot of common sense is required to make good use of a simulation exercise.
List of questions you shoud ask yourself that will help you to evaluate properly the results of a risk analysis exercise
What is the range of possible values for the main outputs?
What is the expected rate of return?
What is the downside of this investment?
How could I cope with the downside?
Is there any combination of uncertainties that result in catastrophic consequences?
Which are the main uncertainty drivers causing the variation in profits?
What can I do to reduce these uncertainties?
How does the risk-return profile fo this project compares to other alternatives?
Full script
invalid-fileTaking the isk outof uncertainty by Kiriakos Vlahos